← Factor School
Factor School → Price Momentum
F01 · Momentum

Price Momentum

The tendency of stocks that have outperformed in the past 6–12 months to continue outperforming in the near future one of the most robust anomalies in Indian equity markets.

Price momentum is the phenomenon where stocks that have generated the highest returns over the past 6 to 12 months tend to continue outperforming over the following 3 to 12 months. In BossInvestor's analysis of 1,500+ Indian stocks over 8 years (2018–2025), the top momentum decile outperformed the equal-weight universe by an average of 18.4 percentage points per year. The bottom decile underperformed by 12.6 percentage points annually. The spread between the top and bottom decile 31 percentage points is the momentum factor premium captured by systematic momentum strategies.

The academic basis for momentum is strong. The original work by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) documented momentum in US equities. In Indian markets, the anomaly is particularly pronounced because retail investor behaviour amplifies it investors buy stocks after they have already risen significantly (recency bias), pushing momentum stocks further up before mean-reversion eventually occurs. The key insight BossInvestor exploits is the holding period: momentum is strongest over 3–12 months forward, and weakest at the 1-month mark (short-term reversal) and beyond 18 months (mean reversion). This is why the BossInvestor momentum screen measures both 6-month and 12-month return simultaneously both must be in the top 40th percentile, not just one.

Momentum's relationship with market regimes is important to understand. In Bull and Recovery regimes, momentum is the strongest-performing factor the premium averages 26 percentage points above benchmark in bull markets and 22 percentage points in recovery phases. In Correction regimes, momentum stocks fall harder than the market because they were the most bought-up names. The Dynamic Allocator model's reduce signals (September 2024: −50%, January 2026: −10%) are specifically calibrated to reduce momentum exposure ahead of correction regimes, protecting the portfolio from the momentum crash that typically follows VIX spikes. This is not prediction it is systematic regime awareness.

Annual outperformance of Top Momentum Decile vs equal-weight universe. Not absolute return. SEBI INH000024143.
Average annualised return by momentum decile across 8-year backtest. D1 = lowest momentum, D10 = highest.
Bull Market
Rising + liquidity
+26.4pp
Peak momentum environment. Top decile captures both fundamental growth and price momentum premium simultaneously.
Recovery (Current)
Post-correction
+22.1pp
Strong recovery momentum. Current regime DA signal Deploy 60% aligns with momentum reentry timing.
Sideways
Flat market
+7.8pp
Modest premium. Factor still active but price momentum signal weakens. Quality overlay becomes more important.
Correction
VIX spike
-14.2pp
Momentum crash risk. Stocks with highest prior returns fall hardest. DA reduce signal precedes this regime.
How BossInvestor Applies This Factor
BossInvestor measures momentum using two windows simultaneously: 12-month return (D−252 to D−21) and 6-month return (D−126 to D−21). Both must be in the top 40th percentile. The 21-day skip prevents capturing short-term reversal. The momentum signal is overlaid with ROCE and OCF quality filters to exclude low-quality momentum names "junk rallies" that reverse sharply.

Regime overlay: when the Dynamic Allocator signals reduce or stress, momentum position sizing is reduced regardless of the factor signal. This prevents holding high-momentum names into a correction. This is the combined edge the best factor signal in recovery, combined with the best allocation model to protect during correction.
Factor Statistics · 8Y
8Y Average Annual Premium
+18.4pp
D10 vs D1 Annual Spread
+31pp
Best Year (+31pp)
2021
Worst Year (−18pp)
2022
Positive Premium Years
6 of 8
Optimal Holding Period
3–12M
Short-term Reversal Window
1M
BossInvestor Entry Threshold
Top 30%
Factor vs Benchmark · Annual
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
+14pp
+22pp
-6pp
+18pp
+11pp
+8pp
-3pp
Outperformed
Underperformed
Relative to equal-weight universe · Not absolute returns · SEBI INH000024143
Regime Premium Table
Regime Premium Win Rate Signal
Bull +26.4pp 82% Max
Recovery +22.1pp 76% High
Sideways +7.8pp 58% Moderate
Correction −14.2pp 28% Reduce
Factor Deep DiveEP 07 · Mar 17, 2026
Price Momentum in Indian Markets Why 70% of Stocks Lost Money in 2025
08:14 · BossInvestor
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE · SEBI INH000024143 · All data is based on BossInvestor's proprietary analysis of 1,500+ Indian stocks · Past factor premia do not guarantee future results